2014/10/29 by Eric Lofgren, Lofgren, Eric T., Caitlin Rivers +7
Health Professions · Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Disaster Response and Management #FOS: Biological sciences #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1410.8207
openalex publication_date 2014/10/29 · openalex created_date 2022/10/05 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
West Africa is currently experiencing a severe outbreak of Ebola virus\ndisease (EVD). As part of the international effort to address this outbreak,\nthe United States has committed to building specialized Ebola treatment\nfacilities with 1700 beds. However, the effectiveness of this increase in the\navailable healthcare facilities to treat Ebola is unclear, especially in light\nof the rapidly increasing number of cases. Adapting a previously validated\nmathematical model of Ebola in West Africa, we examine the potential impact of\nan increase in hospital capacity to mitigate the impact of Ebola under several\nscenarios, ranging from the planned scenario of 1700 beds in 10 weeks to a\nconsiderably more aggressive approach of twice the number of beds in 5 weeks.\nWe find that even for the most aggressive scenarios, while increasing the\navailability of healthcare reduces the number of Ebola cases and slows the\noutbreak, it is not sufficient to stop the epidemic within the next three\nmonths. We find that only a combination of increased hospital beds and a\ndramatic decrease in the rate of transmission within the community can bring\nthe epidemic under control within the near future.\n