Investigating Fouling Efficiency in Football Using Expected Booking (xB) Model

2024/01/16 by Azmat, Adnan, Su Su Yi, Yi, Su Su
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Engineering · Medicine · #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Sports Analytics and Performance #Sports Dynamics and Biomechanics #Sports Performance and Training

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2401.08718

openalex publication_date 2024/01/16 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

This paper introduces the Expected Booking (xB) model, a novel metric designed to estimate the likelihood of a foul resulting in a yellow card in football. Through three iterative experiments, employing ensemble methods, the model demonstrates improved performance with additional features and an expanded dataset. Analysis of FIFA World Cup 2022 data validates the model's efficacy in providing insights into team and player fouling tactics, aligning with actual defensive performance. The xB model addresses a gap in fouling efficiency examination, emphasizing defensive strategies which often overlooked. Further enhancements are suggested through the incorporation of comprehensive data and spatial features.

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