The Long‐Term Effects of Early Track Choice

2016/08/08 by Christian Dustmann, Patrick A. Puhani, Uta Schönberg · 157 citations
Mathematics · Social Sciences · #Advanced Causal Inference Techniques #Computer science #Economics #Intergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies #Physics #School Choice and Performance #Term (time) #Track (disk drive)

paper · open access · doi:10.1111/ecoj.12419

published in The Economic Journal 127(603), 1348-1380 (Oxford University Press)

openalex publication_date 2016/08/08 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/25

Abstract

We investigate the effects of attending a more advanced track in middle school on long‐term education and labour market outcomes for Germany, a country with a rigorous early‐age tracking system, where the risk of misallocating students is particularly high. Our research design exploits quasi‐random shifts between tracks induced by date of birth, and speaks to the long‐term effects of early track attendance for a group of marginal students most at risk of misallocation. Remarkably, we find no evidence that attending a more advanced track leads to more favourable long‐term outcomes. We attribute this result to the possibility of later track‐reversal.

Citations

• Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

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