The Data Forecast in COVID-19 Model with Applications to US, South Korea, Brazil, India, Russia and Italy

2020/11/05 by Lin, Bo-Cyuan, Chen, Yen-Jia, Hung, Yi-Cheng +3
#FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2011.04738

Abstract

In this paper, we firstly propose SQIARD and SIARD models to investigate the transmission of COVID-19 with quarantine, infected and asymptomatic infected, and discuss the relation between the respective basic reproduction number R₀, R_Q and the stability of the equilibrium points of model. Secondly, after training the related data parameters, in our numerical simulations, we respectively conduct the forecast of the data of US, South Korea, Brazil, India, Russia and Italy, and the effect of prediction of the epidemic situation in each country. Furthermore, we apply US data to compare SQIARD with SIARD, and display the effects of predictions.

Related

• Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19
• Real-Time Differential Epidemic Analysis and Prediction for COVID-19 Pandemic
• Estimation of Infection Rate and Prediction of Initial Infected Individuals of COVID-19
• Prediction and analysis of Coronavirus Disease 2019
• Remarks on a data-driven model for predicting the course of COVID-19 epidemic