2020/01/16 by Stephen Clark, Clark, Stephen
Psychology · #Applications (stat.AP) #Categorization, perception, and language #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Economics and business #FOS: Physical sciences #General Economics (econ.GN) #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph)
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2001.06548
openalex publication_date 2020/01/16 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The purpose of this paper is to use the votes cast at the 2019 European elections held in United Kingdom to re-visit the analysis conducted subsequent to its 2016 European Union referendum vote. This exercise provides a staging post on public opinion as the United Kingdom moves to leave the European Union during 2020. A composition data analysis in a seemingly unrelated regression framework is adopted that respects the compositional nature of the vote outcome; each outcome is a share that adds up to 100% and each outcome is related to the alternatives. Contemporary explanatory data for each counting area is sourced from the themes of socio-demographics, employment, life satisfaction and place. The study find that there are still strong and stark divisions in the United Kingdom, defined by age, qualifications, employment and place. The use of a compositional analysis approach produces challenges in regards to the interpretation of these models, but marginal plots are seen to aid the interpretation somewhat.