2008/02/25 by Martín Andrés Szybisz, Szybisz, Martin A., L. Szybisz +1 · 2 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Computational Finance (q-fin.CP) #Economic theories and models #FOS: Economics and business #FOS: Physical sciences #General Finance (q-fin.GN) #Monetary Policy and Economic Impact #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.0802.3553
openalex publication_date 2008/02/25 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
A model proposed by Sornette, Takayasu, and Zhou for describing hyperinflation regimes based on adaptive expectations expressed in terms of a power law which leads to a finite-time singularity is revisited. It is suggested to express the price index evolution explicitly in terms of the parameters introduced along the theoretical formulation avoiding any combination of them used in the original work. This procedure allows to study unambiguously the uncertainties of such parameters when an error is assigned to the measurement of the price index. In this way, it is possible to determine an uncertainty in the critical time at which the singularity occurs. For this purpose, Monte Carlo simulation techniques are applied. The hyperinflation episodes of Peru (1969-90) and Weimar Germany (1920-3) are reexamined. The first analyses performed within this framework of the very extreme hyper-inflations occurred in Greece (1941-4) and Yugoslavia (1991-4) are reported. The study of the hyperinflation spiral experienced just nowadays in Zimbabwe predicts a singularity, i.e., a complete economic crash within two years.