Who has the best probabilities? Luck versus skill in prediction tournaments

2025/09/10 by MacKay, Niall
#62 #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Other Statistics (stat.OT)

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2509.08744

Abstract

An informal and elementary introduction to probability scoring and forecast verification and improvement, slightly extended from Significance 22:3(2025)16, which might be useful for less mathematical readers as a prologue to the classic review by Gneiting and Raftery [Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation, Journal of the American Statistical Association 102 (2007): 359].

Citations

• A Prediction Tournament Paradox
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score

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• A Prediction Tournament Paradox
• Contrasting Probabilistic Scoring Rules
• The Pick-the-Winner-Picker Heuristic: Preference for Categorically Correct Forecasts
• Use of the likelihood for measuring the skill of probabilistic forecasts
• Optimal probabilistic forecasts: When do they work?