2022/05/15 by Athanasios Papaioannou, Rami Vainio, Papaioannou, Athanasios +15 · 1 citation
Computer Science · Physics and Astronomy · #FOS: Physical sciences #Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics #Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics #Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics #Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (astro-ph.SR) #Space Physics (physics.space-ph)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2205.07325
openalex publication_date 2022/05/15 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01
The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies (i.e. E>10, >30 and >100 MeV) from characteristics of solar flares (longitude, magnitude), coronal mass ejections (width, speed) and combinations of both. Herein the PROSPER model methodology for deriving the SEP event forecasts is described and the validation of the model, based on archived data, is presented for a set of case studies. The PROSPER model has been incorporated into the new operational Advanced Solar Particle Event Casting System (ASPECS) tool to provide nowcasting (short term forecasting) of SEP events as part of ESA's future SEP Advanced Warning System (SAWS). ASPECS also provides the capability to interrogate PROSPER for historical cases via a run on demand functionality.