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Modular Belief Updates and Confusion about Measures of Certainty in\n Artificial Intelligence Research

2014/07/27 by Eric Horvitz, Horvitz, Eric J., David Heckerman +1
Computer Science · #AI-based Problem Solving and Planning #Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) #Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Logic, Reasoning, and Knowledge

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1407.7281

openalex publication_date 2014/07/27 · openalex created_date 2022/09/01 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Over the last decade, there has been growing interest in the use or measures\nor change in belief for reasoning with uncertainty in artificial intelligence\nresearch. An important characteristic of several methodologies that reason with\nchanges in belief or belief updates, is a property that we term modularity. We\ncall updates that satisfy this property modular updates. Whereas probabilistic\nmeasures of belief update - which satisfy the modularity property were first\ndiscovered in the nineteenth century, knowledge and discussion of these\nquantities remains obscure in artificial intelligence research. We define\nmodular updates and discuss their inappropriate use in two influential expert\nsystems.\n

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