2011/08/24 by Simone Vincenzi, Vincenzi, Simone, Michele Bellingeri +1
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Environmental Science · #Ecosystem dynamics and resilience #Evolution and Genetic Dynamics #FOS: Biological sciences #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #Species Distribution and Climate Change
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1108.4950
openalex publication_date 2011/08/24 · openalex created_date 2022/08/30 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The intensification and increased frequency of weather extremes is emerging\nas one of the most important aspects of climate change. We use Monte Carlo\nsimulation to understand and predict the consequences of variations in trends\n(i.e., directional change) and stochasticity (i.e., increase in variance) of\nclimate variables and consequent selection pressure by using simple models of\npopulation dynamics. Higher variance of climate variables increases the\nprobability of weather extremes and consequent catastrophic disturbances.\nParameters of the model are selection pressure, mutation, directional and\nstochastic variation of the environment. We follow the population dynamics and\nthe distribution of a trait that describes the adaptation of the individual to\nthe optimum phenotype defined by the environmental conditions. The survival\nchances of a population depend quite strongly on the selection pressure and\ndecrease with increasing variance of the climate variable. In general, the\nsystem is able to track the directional component of the optimum phenotype.\nIntermediate levels of mutation generally increase the probability of tracking\nthe changing optimum and thus decrease the risk of extinction of a population.\nWith high mutation, the higher probability of maladaptation decreases the\nsurvival chances of the populations, even with high variability of the optimum\nphenotype.\n