2007/04/24 by Maíra Aguiar, Aguiar, Maíra, Nico Stollenwerk +1
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Mathematics · Medicine · Physics and Astronomy · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Chaotic Dynamics (nlin.CD) #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Influenza Virus Research Studies #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #nlin.CD #q-bio.PE
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.0704.3174
16 pages, 15 figures
arxiv created 2007/04/24 · openalex publication_date 2007/04/24 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
An epidemic multi-strain model with temporary cross-immunity shows chaos, even in a previously unexpected parameter region. Especially dengue fever models with strong enhanced infectivity on secondary infection have previously shown deterministic chaos motivated by experimental findings of antibody-dependent-enhancement (ADE). Including temporary cross-immunity in such models, which is common knowledge among field researchers in dengue, we find a deterministically chaotic attractor in the more realistic parameter region of reduced infectivity on secondary infection (''inverse ADE'' parameter region). This is realistic for dengue fever since on second infection people are more likely to be hospitalized, hence do not contribute to the force of infection as much as people with first infection. Our finding has wider implications beyond dengue in any multi-strain epidemiological systems with altered infectivity upon secondary infection, since we can relax the condition of rather high infectivity on secondary infection previously required for deterministic chaos. For dengue the finding of wide ranges of chaotic attractors open new ways to analysis of existing data sets.