Extending the Dixon and Coles model: an application to women's football data

2023/07/05 by Rouven Michels, Michels, Rouven, Marius Ötting +3 · 1 citation
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #Census and Population Estimation #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Methodology (stat.ME) #Sports Analytics and Performance #Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2307.02139

openalex publication_date 2023/07/05 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

The prevalent model by Dixon and Coles (1997) extends the double Poisson model where two independent Poisson distributions model the number of goals scored by each team by moving probabilities between the scores 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, and 1-1. We show that this is a special case of a multiplicative model known as the Sarmanov family. Based on this family, we create more suitable models by moving probabilities between scores and employing other discrete distributions. We apply the new models to women's football scores, which exhibit some characteristics different than that of men's football.

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