2020/03/22 by Elena Loli Piccolomini, Piccolomini, Elena Loli, Fabiana Zama +1 · 44 citations
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Medicine · #2019-20 coronavirus outbreak #Adaptation (eye) #Biology #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Computer science #Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) #FOS: Biological sciences #Geography #Government (linguistics) #Medicine #Outbreak #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research #Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) #Virology #q-bio.PE
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2003.09909
published in arXiv (Cornell University) (Cornell University)
arxiv created 2020/03/22 · openalex publication_date 2020/03/22 · arxiv updated 2020/03/24 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
In this paper we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Exposed-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) differential model for the analysis and forecast of the COVID-19 spread in some regions of Italy, using the data from the Italian Protezione Civile from February 24th 2020. In this study investigate an adaptation of the model. Since several restricting measures have been imposed by the Italian government at different times, starting from March 8th 2020, we propose a modification of SEIRD by introducing a time dependent transmitting rate. In the numerical results we report the maximum infection spread for the three Italian regions firstly affected by the COVID-19 outbreak(Lombardia, Veneto and Emilia Romagna). This approach will be successively extended to other Italian regions, as soon as more data will be available.