2020/05/13 by Omid Askarisichania, Askarisichania, Omid, Ambuj K. Singh +5 · 1 citation
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Physics and Astronomy · #Complex Network Analysis Techniques #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Social and Information Networks (cs.SI)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2005.06245
openalex publication_date 2020/05/13 · openalex created_date 2022/07/26 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We draw on the data collected by the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System\non millions of international and regional public news stories, and this\nsystem's indicators of the orientation toward a specific nation-state. We\nconstruct the networks of international amicable and hostile relations among\nnation-states that occur in specific time-periods in order to study the global\nevolution of the network of such international appraisals. Our analysis\npresents evidence of an evolution of the structure of this network and a model\nof the probabilistic micro-dynamics of the alterations of international\nappraisals during the 1995-2018 span of the available data. Our research\nprovides empirical findings on long-standing debates in the interdisciplinary\nfield of work on Structural Balance Theory. Also remarkably, we find that the\ntrajectory of the Frobenius norm of sequential transition probabilities, which\ngovern the evolution of international appraisals among nations, dramatically\nstabilizes.\n