Rehabilitating Duverger’s Theory

2006/06/22 by William Roberts Clark, William R. Clark, Matt Golder · 377 citations
Social Sciences · #Duverger's law #Economics #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #General election #Institution #Law #Law and economics #Mathematical economics #Political science #Politics #Populism, Right-Wing Movements #Positive economics #Primary election #Social Media and Politics #Social choice theory

paper · doi:10.1177/0010414005278420

published in Comparative Political Studies 39(6), 679-708 (SAGE Publishing)

openalex publication_date 2006/06/22 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31

Abstract

Although Duverger is traditionally seen as synonymous with the institution-list approach to party systems, this article shows that he believed social pressures were the driving force behind the multiplication of parties. Electoral institutions are important, but only because they determine the extent to which social forces are translated into political parties. Although the literature has finally come to realize that social and institutional forces interact to shape party systems, scholars still do not seem to fully understood the implications of Duverger’s theory. This article shows that existing research employs flawed statistical specifications, makes inferential errors, and does not calculate desired quantities of interest. Using a new data set that includes elections since 1946, the authors reexamine Duverger’s theory and find that modern tests largely bear out his expectations when properly specified and interpreted. This analysis also extends current research by specifically estimating the mechanical and strategic modifying effects of electoral institutions.

Citations

• What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data

Cited by

• Social Diversity Affects the Number of Parties Even Under First-Past-the-Post Rules
• Social Cleavages and the Number of Parties
• Demographic Diversity and District-Level Party Systems
• Credibility Versus Competition
• Coethnics Covote in Africa: Studying Electoral Cleavages with a Covoting Regression Model
• Arguing for a Negligible Effect
• On the optimal size of legislatures: An illustrated literature review
• Introducing the Democratic Electoral Systems data, 1919-1945
• How Much Should We Trust Estimates from Multiplicative Interaction Models? Simple Tools to Improve Empirical Practice
• Are Voters Equal under Proportional Representation?
• Ideological Congruence and Electoral Institutions
• The Seat Product Model of the effective number of parties: A case for applied political science
• Context, Electoral Rules, and Party Systems
• O bipartidarismo em Cabo Verde: a dinâmica do surgimento dos terceiros partidos e a magnitude dos distritos
• Far Right Parties in Europe
• District coordination versus party consolidation: alternative ways Duverger’s law works … sort of
• Political party [wikipedia]
• Introducing the Democratic Electoral Systems data, 1919-1945. [europepmc]

Related

• Was Duverger Correct? Single-Member District Election Outcomes in Fifty-three Countries
• Social Cleavages and the Number of Parties
• Electoral Stability and Rigidity
• Inside Parties
• Parties and Voters: What Creates the Ties?