2015/02/10 by Boris S. Kerner, Kerner, Boris S., Micha Koller +7
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Engineering · Physics and Astronomy · Social Sciences · #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques #Traffic control and management #Transportation Planning and Optimization #physics.soc-ph
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1502.02862
22 pages, 19 figures
arxiv created 2015/02/10 · openalex publication_date 2015/02/10 · arxiv updated 2015/02/11 · openalex created_date 2022/09/05 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Based on an empirical study of real field traffic data measured in 1996--2014 through road detectors installed on German freeways, we reveal physical features of empirical nuclei for spontaneous traffic breakdown in free flow at highway bottlenecks. It is shown that the source of a nucleus for traffic breakdown is the solely difference between empirical spontaneous and induced traffic breakdowns at a highway bottleneck. Microscopic traffic simulations with a stochastic traffic flow model in the framework of three-phase theory explain the empirical findings. It turns out that in the most cases, a nucleus for empirical spontaneous traffic breakdown occurs through an interaction of one of waves in free flow with an empirical permanent speed disturbance localized at a highway bottleneck. The wave is a localized structure in free flow, in which the total flow rate is larger and the speed averaged across the highway is smaller than outside the wave. The waves in free flow appear due to oscilations in the percentage of slow vehicles; these waves propagate with the average speed of slow vehicles in free flow (about 85--88 km/h for German highways). Any of the waves exhibits a two-dimensional asymmetric spatiotemporal structure: Wave's characteristics are different in different highway lanes.