2025/01/24 by Arnob Ray, Abhirup Banerjee, Ray, Arnob +5
Environmental Science · #Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #FOS: Physical sciences
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2501.14937
openalex publication_date 2025/01/24 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
A comprehensive characterization of internal climate variability and irreducible uncertainty through initial-condition large ensembles of Earth system models across different spatiotemporal scales remains a significant challenge in climate science. In this study, we find significant differences in the spatial connectivity structures of temperature networks across ensemble members, with variations in long-range connections providing a distinguishing feature across the outcomes of initial conditions. Based on this, we introduce a novel quantifier, the 'Connectivity Ratio' (R), to encapsulate the spatial connectivity structure of each ensemble member by investigating the influence of internal climate variability on the global connectivity patterns in air temperatures. R allows us to characterize the variability of spatial dependence structure across the initial condition ensemble members as well as multiple models. Furthermore, we examine changes in spatial connectivity between near-term and long-term projections using R, which shows a potential shift in climate predictability under anthropogenic influence on a spatial scale.