2015/08/09 by William M. Briggs, Briggs, William M.
Computer Science · Mathematics · #Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Other Statistics (stat.OT) #stat.OT
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1508.02384
14 pages, 4 figures
arxiv created 2015/08/09 · openalex publication_date 2015/08/09 · arxiv updated 2015/08/12 · openalex created_date 2024/04/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
There is a third way of implementing probability models and practicing. This is to answer questions put in terms of observables. This eliminates frequentist hypothesis testing and Bayes factors and it also eliminates parameter estimation. The Third Way is the logical probability approach, which is to make statements Pr(Y ∈ y | X,D,M) about observables of interest Y taking values y, given probative data X, past observations (when present) D and some model (possibly deduced) M. Significance and the false idea that probability models show causality are no more, and in their place are importance and relevance. Models are built keeping on information that is relevant and important to a decision maker (and not a statistician). All models are stated in publicly verifiable fashion, as predictions. All models must undergo a verification process before any trust is put into them.