2022/07/05 by Goller, Daniel, Heiniger, Sandro · 1 citation
#Applications (stat.AP) #FOS: Computer and information sciences
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2207.02316
We propose a statistical framework for quantifying the importance of single events that do not provide intermediate rewards but offer implicit incentives through the reward structure at the end of a multi-event contest. Applying the framework to primary elections in the US, where earlier elections have greater importance and influence, we show that schedule variations can mitigate the problem of front-loading elections. When applied to European football, we demonstrate the utility and meaningfulness of quantified event importance in relation to the in-match performance of contestants, to improve outcome prediction and to provide an early indication of public interest.