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Same-Score Streaks: A Case Study in Probability Modeling

2020/06/05 by Peter Staab, Staab, Peter, Rick Cleary +1
Computer Science · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #Applications (stat.AP) #Data Analysis with R #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Sports Analytics and Performance #Statistics Education and Methodologies #stat.AP

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2006.03348

arxiv created 2020/06/05 · openalex publication_date 2020/06/05 · arxiv updated 2020/06/08 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

A same-score streak in sports is a sequence of games where the scores are equivalent in all games. The motivating problem arose from college basketball, however due to the difficulty in collecting data, streaks in Major League Baseball (MLB) were studied instead. This paper explores the historic data from regular-season games between 1901 and 2019 to include the likelihood of streaks of length 2, 3 and 4. Then we explore various probability models for the distribution of runs scored during MLB games and seasons and generate simulated statistics for the same length of streaks.

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