2012/12/24 by Marijn ten Thij, Thij, Marijn ten, Yana Volkovich +5
Computer Science · Physics and Astronomy · Social Sciences · #Computers and Society (cs.CY) #Data Analysis #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Social and Information Networks (cs.SI) #Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an) #Wikis in Education and Collaboration #cs.CY #cs.SI #physics.data-an #physics.soc-ph
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1212.5943
6 pages, 13 figures Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems (ECCS 2013)
openalex publication_date 2012/12/24 · arxiv created 2013/09/09 · arxiv updated 2013/09/12 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We introduce a model for predicting page-view dynamics of promoted content. The regularity of the content promotion process on Wikipedia provides excellent experimental conditions which favour detailed modelling. We show that the popularity of an article featured on Wikipedia's main page decays exponentially in time if the circadian cycles of the users are taken into account. Our model can be explained as the result of individual Poisson processes and is validated through empirical measurements. It provides a simpler explanation for the evolution of content popularity than previous studies.