2024/10/12 by Marco Bertetti, Bertetti, Marco, Paolo Agnolucci +5
Health Professions · #FOS: Mathematics #Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations #Numerical Analysis (math.NA)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2410.09384
openalex publication_date 2024/10/12 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Reports from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) serve as the benchmark for food security predictions which is crucial for stakeholders in planning interventions and support people in need. This paper assesses the predictive accuracy of FEWSNET's food security forecasting, by comparing predictions to the following ground truth assessments at the administrative boundaries-livelihood level, revealing an overall high accuracy of 78% across diverse timeframes and locations. However, our analysis also shows significant variations in performance across distinct regions and prediction periods. Therefore, our analysis sheds light on strengths, weaknesses, and areas for improvement in the context of food security predictions. The insights derived from this study not only enhance our understanding of FEWSNET's capabilities but also emphasize the importance of continuous refinement in forecasting methodologies.