2018/12/15 by Kellie Ottoboni, Ottoboni, Kellie, Matthew Bernhard +7
Computer Science · Social Sciences · #Applications (stat.AP) #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Internet Traffic Analysis and Secure E-voting
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1812.06361
openalex publication_date 2018/12/15 · openalex created_date 2022/08/01 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We present a method and software for ballot-polling risk-limiting audits\n(RLAs) based on Bernoulli sampling: ballots are included in the sample with\nprobability p, independently. Bernoulli sampling has several advantages: (1)\nit does not require a ballot manifest; (2) it can be conducted independently at\ndifferent locations, rather than requiring a central authority to select the\nsample from the whole population of cast ballots or requiring stratified\nsampling; (3) it can start in polling places on election night, before margins\nare known. If the reported margins for the 2016 U.S. Presidential election are\ncorrect, a Bernoulli ballot-polling audit with a risk limit of 5% and a\nsampling rate of p0 = 1 % would have had at least a 99% probability of\nconfirming the outcome in 42 states. (The other states were more likely to have\nneeded to examine additional ballots.) Logistical and security advantages that\nauditing in the polling place affords may outweigh the cost of examining more\nballots than some other methods might require.\n