2019/11/08 by Jessie Lydia Henshaw, Henshaw, Jessie Lydia
Physics and Astronomy · #Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems (nlin.AO) #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #nlin.AO #physics.ao-ph #physics.soc-ph
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1911.04340
13 pages 6 figures, 3700 word MS and captions, linked supplemental matter
arxiv created 2019/11/08 · arxiv updated 2019/11/12
The recent discovery of long term growth constants in the accumulation of atmospheric CO2, confirmed by two methods, enables analog methods for dating the beginning of climate change at ~1780 and projecting its near term future. Here we show that the preceding wavy variation in CO2 PPM abruptly shifts to exponential, moving symmetrically around a growth constant of 1.48 %/yr until WWII, and after a pause rises to hover about a higher constant growth constant from 1960 on of 2.0 %/yr. Such long term steady states of global environmental change suggest transitions between stable states of global self-organization. A method of analog curve fitting to project the current steady state of acceleration is tested, suggesting a 2040 earth temperature rise of 1.89 deg C above the IPCC baseline. A very brief following discussion of what a systemic growth constant for atmospheric CO2 implies and model strategies for responding to it.