2020/04/30 by D. Lanteri, Lanteri, D., Daniela Carcò +7
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #FOS: Biological sciences #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2004.14701
openalex publication_date 2020/04/30 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
In all Countries the political decisions aim to achieve an almost stable configuration with a small number of new infected individuals per day due to Covid-19. When such a condition is reached, the containment effort is usually reduced in favor of a gradual reopening of the social life and of the various economical sectors. However, in this new phase, the infection spread restarts and a quantitative analysis of the regrowth is very useful. We discuss a macroscopic approach which, on the basis of the collected data in the first lockdown, after few days from the beginning of the new phase, outlines different scenarios of the Covid-19 diffusion for longer time. The purpose of this paper is a demonstration-of-concept: one takes simple growth models, considers the available data and shows how the future trend of the spread can be obtained. The method applies a time dependent carrying capacity, analogously to many macroscopic growth laws in biology, economics and population dynamics. The illustrative cases of Singapore, France, Spain and Italy are analyzed.