2016/10/19 by van Putten, Maurice H. P. M., van Putten, Anton F. P., van Putten, Michael J. A. M.
#FOS: Physical sciences #Geophysics (physics.geo-ph)
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1610.05870
The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquakes event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been evolving at a constant rate over the last few decades essentially uncorrelated to gas production. We demonstrate our mechanism by a tabletop crack formation experiment. The observed skewed distribution of event magnitudes is matched by that of maxima of event clusters with a normal distribution. It predicts about one event