2022/07/19 by David Roodman, Roodman, David
Social Sciences · #FOS: Economics and business #General Economics (econ.GN) #Vocational and Entrepreneurial Education
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2207.09036
openalex publication_date 2022/07/19 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Duflo (2001) exploits a 1970s schooling expansion in Indonesia to estimate impacts on schooling and labor outcomes, as well as the returns to schooling. I correct data errors, adjust for potential sources of bias, follow up later in life, and check sensitivity to two specification choices that are not explained in the original text and that are applied to some regressions and not others. Headline estimates from the original, 1995 follow-up are generally not robust to the revisions. Returns to schooling are weakly identified. But certain "fingerprints" from Duflo (2001) specification checks--impacts appearing only in the birth cohorts or at the grade levels where expected--recognizably persist. E.g., impact estimates from kink-based specifications that focus on timing by birth cohort are consistently positive, if not always at conventional significance lev-els. The best explanation, though weakened, is causation from the schooling expansion to individual schooling attainment to wages.