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Calibrating LLMs with Information-Theoretic Evidential Deep Learning

2025/02/10 by Yawei Li, David Rügamer, Li, Yawei +5 · 6 citations
Computer Science · Psychology · #Advanced Computational Techniques and Applications #Artificial intelligence #Computer science #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Imbalanced Data Classification Techniques #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Natural Language Processing Techniques #Psychology

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2502.06351

published in arXiv (Cornell University) (Cornell University)

openalex publication_date 2025/02/10 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) often exhibit overconfidence, particularly when trained on small datasets, resulting in poor calibration and inaccurate uncertainty estimates. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), an uncertainty-aware approach, enables uncertainty estimation in a single forward pass, making it a promising method for calibrating fine-tuned LLMs. However, despite its computational efficiency, EDL is prone to overfitting, as its training objective can result in overly concentrated probability distributions. To mitigate this, we propose regularizing EDL by incorporating an information bottleneck (IB). Our approach IB-EDL suppresses spurious information in the evidence generated by the model and encourages truly predictive information to influence both the predictions and uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments across various fine-tuned LLMs and tasks demonstrate that IB-EDL outperforms both existing EDL and non-EDL approaches. By improving the trustworthiness of LLMs, IB-EDL facilitates their broader adoption in domains requiring high levels of confidence calibration. Code is available at https://github.com/sandylaker/ib-edl.

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