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Personalized Survival Prediction with Contextual Explanation Networks

2018/01/30 by Maruan Al-Shedivat, Al-Shedivat, Maruan, Avinava Dubey +3
Computer Science · #Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) #Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Machine Learning in Healthcare #Topic Modeling

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1801.09810

openalex publication_date 2018/01/30 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Accurate and transparent prediction of cancer survival times on the level of individual patients can inform and improve patient care and treatment practices. In this paper, we design a model that concurrently learns to accurately predict patient-specific survival distributions and to explain its predictions in terms of patient attributes such as clinical tests or assessments. Our model is flexible and based on a recurrent network, can handle various modalities of data including temporal measurements, and yet constructs and uses simple explanations in the form of patient- and time-specific linear regression. For analysis, we use two publicly available datasets and show that our networks outperform a number of baselines in prediction while providing a way to inspect the reasons behind each prediction.

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