2016/08/13 by Peter Richmond, Richmond, Peter, Roehner, Bertrand M.
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Social Sciences · #FOS: Economics and business #General Finance (q-fin.GN) #Global Urban Networks and Dynamics #Housing Market and Economics #Housing, Finance, and Neoliberalism #Trading and Market Microstructure (q-fin.TR)
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1608.03985
openalex publication_date 2016/08/13 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Between 2003 and 2015 the prices of apartments in Hong Kong (adjusted for inflation) increased by a factor of 3.8. This is much higher than in the United States prior to the so-called subprime crisis of 2007. The analysis of this speculative episode confirms the mechanism and regularities already highlighted by the present authors in similar episodes in other countries. Based on these regularities, it is possible to predict the price trajectory over the time interval 2016-2025. It suggests that, unless appropriate relief is provided by the mainland, Hong Kong will experience a decade-long slump. Possible implications for its relations with Beijing are discussed at the end of the paper.