The impact of a nation-wide lockdown on COVID-19 transmissibility in Italy

2020/04/26 by Giorgio Guzzetta, Flavia Riccardo, Guzzetta, Giorgio +38
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Environmental Science · Mathematics · #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #COVID-19 impact on air quality #FOS: Biological sciences #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #q-bio.PE

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2004.12338

6 pages, 3 figures; submitted

arxiv created 2020/04/26 · openalex publication_date 2020/04/26 · arxiv updated 2020/04/28 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

On March 10, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of COVID-19. Here we estimate that, fourteen days after the implementation of the strategy, the net reproduction number has dropped below the epidemic threshold - estimated range 0.4-0.7. Our findings provide a timeline of the effectiveness of the implemented lockdown, which is relevant for a large number of countries that followed Italy in enforcing similar measures.

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