2017/08/24 by Jeremy Horowitz · 58 citations
Psychology · Social Sciences · #Culture, Economy, and Development Studies #Demographic economics #Economics #Ethnic group #Gender studies #Law #Media Influence and Politics #National election #Persuasion #Political Conflict and Governance #Political economy #Political science #Politics #Presidential election #Psychology #Race (biology) #Salient #Social psychology #Sociology #Swing #Voting #Voting behavior
paper · doi:10.1017/s0007123417000011
published in British Journal of Political Science 49(3), 901-921 (Cambridge University Press)
openalex publication_date 2017/08/24 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/30
Who are Africa’s swing voters? This article argues that in settings where ethnicity is politically salient, core and swing are defined by whether ethnic groups have a co-ethnic leader in the election. For members of ethnic groups with a co-ethnic in the race, there is typically less uncertainty about which party or candidate will best represent the group’s interests. For members of groups without a co-ethnic in the race, uncertainty is often greater, making these voters potentially more receptive to campaign persuasion and more likely to change voting intentions during the campaign. Consistent with these expectations, panel data from Kenya’s 2013 presidential election shows that voters from groups without a co-ethnic in the race were more than two and a half times more likely to change their voting intentions during the campaign period.