2020/05/08 by Tobias Hartl, Hartl, Tobias, Rolf Tschernig +3
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Econometrics (econ.EM) #FOS: Economics and business #Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling #Italy: Economic History and Contemporary Issues #Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2005.03988
openalex publication_date 2020/05/08 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We develop a generalization of unobserved components models that allows for a wide range of long-run dynamics by modelling the permanent component as a fractionally integrated process. The model does not require stationarity and can be cast in state space form. In a multivariate setup, fractional trends may yield a cointegrated system. We derive the Kalman filter estimator for the common fractionally integrated component and establish consistency and asymptotic (mixed) normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. We apply the model to extract a common long-run component of three US inflation measures, where we show that the I(1) assumption is likely to be violated for the common trend.