Predicting the Next Maxima Incidents of the Seasonally Forced SEIR Epidemic Model

2014/01/30 by Chrysanthakopoulos, Charalampos A.
#FOS: Biological sciences #Quantitative Methods (q-bio.QM)

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1401.7972

Abstract

This paper aims at predicting the next maxima values of the state variables of the seasonal SEIR epidemic model and their in-between time intervals. Lorenz's method of analogues is applied on the attractor formed by the maxima of the corresponding state variables. It is found that both quantities are characterized by a high degree of predictability in the case of the chaotic regime of the parameter space.

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