A simple finite delayed multi-type branching process for infectious disease modeling

2021/01/17 by Hart, Andrew, Martínez, Servet
#60J80 (Primary) #60J85 #92D30 (Secondary) #FOS: Mathematics #Probability (math.PR)

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2101.06790

Abstract

We study a model for the spread of an infectious disease which incorporates spatial and temporal effects. The model is a delayed multi-type branching process in which types represent geographic regions while infected individuals reproduce offspring during a finite time interval and have convalescence times and random death/recovery outcomes. We give simple expressions for the limit of the geometrically weighted mean evolution of the process.

Related

• Time Evolution of the Spread of Diseases with a General Infectivity Profile on a Complex Dynamic Network
• Coupling a branching process to an infinite dimensional epidemic process
• Modelling the Stochastic Importation Dynamics and Establishment of Novel Pathogenic Strains using a General Branching Processes Framework
• Approximating the epidemic curve
• Multi-patch epidemic models with general exposed and infectious periods