Estimating Bernoulli trial probability from a small sample

2011/05/08 by Norman D. Megill, Megill, Norman D., Mladen Pavicic +1
Computer Science · Mathematics · #Computation (stat.CO) #Distributed #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Mathematics #Parallel #Probability (math.PR) #and Cluster Computing (cs.DC) #cs.DC #math.PR #stat.CO

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1105.1486

4 pages

arxiv created 2011/05/08 · arxiv updated 2011/05/11

Abstract

The standard textbook method for estimating the probability of a biased coin from finite tosses implicitly assumes the sample sizes are large and gives incorrect results for small samples. We describe the exact solution, which is correct for any sample size.

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