2025/12/18 by Costin Ciobanu, Joost van Spanje · 1 voice
Social Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Social Capital and Networks #Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
paper · pdf · doi:10.1017/psrm.2025.10064
Abstract Research on economic voting shows that negative economic events typically reduce government support. However, we argue that external economic shocks may have the opposite effect: when faced with a foreign economic threat, voters will rally behind their government despite worsening economic perceptions. Using the unexpected collapse of Lehman Brothers (15 September 2008) as a case, we analyze European Social Survey data from six countries and find that while satisfaction with national economies declined, satisfaction with governments gradually rose. We document that rising media and political attention coincided with a rally effect fueled by past opposition voters and muted opposition elites. These findings demonstrate that foreign economic shocks influence democratic accountability and the ability of governments to act during hard times.