Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth: Evidence from Polling Effects around Electoral Thresholds

2026/06/08 by Werner Krause, Christina Gahn · 2 voices
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Social Sciences · #Bullet voting #Cardinal voting systems #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Fiscal Policies and Political Economy #Media Influence and Politics #Polling #Ranked voting system #Voting #Voting behavior

paper · doi:10.1086/742632

published in The Journal of Politics (University of Chicago Press)

openalex publication_date 2026/06/08 · openalex created_date 2026/06/09 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/11

Citations

• The AUTNES Online Panel Study 2017–2024: A Dataset of Austrian Voter Attitudes and Behavior

Discussions

• Danke @irisbonavida.bsky.social für das Gespräch! Kurz gesagt: Für Parteien an der Vier-Prozent-Hürde macht es einen Unterschied, ob eine Umfrage sie knapp darunter oder knapp darüber zeigt. 📊🗳️ Wer [bsky, 30 points, 2 comments]
• Last but not least & a bit more loosely related, but @krausewe.bsky.social & @christinagahn.bsky.social show in a new paper that insufficiently reported statistical uncertainties within polling can si [bsky, 4 points, 1 comments]