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Analysis of sustainable economic growth factors in developed countries: impact and social security expenditures on GDP dynamics based on GMM and var modeling

2026/04/30 by Mikhail Dorofeev, Pavel Romaikin, Alexey Mikhaylov +1 · 1 voice
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Health Professions · #Socio-economic Development and Sustainability #Banking, Crisis Management, COVID-19 Impact #Global Health Care Issues

paper · doi:10.1080/00036846.2026.2664811

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between ESG (environmental, social and governance) indicators and GDP per capita growth in developed countries from 1980 to 2022. While the concept of ESG is well established in corporate assessment, its application at the national level remains under-researched. Using econometric modelling with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and incorporating Granger causality tests, 33 variables across ESG domains were analysed to determine their influence on GDP growth per capita. The findings highlight the significant role of social factors, particularly government social expenditures, in moderating GDP growth. In contrast, environmental indicators showed limited impact, supporting previous conclusions on the importance of governance for economic growth. These insights offer practical value for policymakers aiming to balance economic development with sustainability, especially amid global economic challenges. Further research is recommended to deepen the understanding of ESG’s impact on national economies and welfare.

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