2024/03/12 by Bui, Hieu, Sandra D. Ekşioğlu, Eksioglu, Sandra +2
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Mathematics #FOS: Physical sciences #Optimization and Control (math.OC) #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2403.07971
openalex publication_date 2024/03/12 · openalex created_date 2024/03/15 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted significant challenges in the allocation of vital healthcare resources. Existing epidemiological models, specifically compartmental models, aimed to predict the spread of the COVID-19 virus and its impact on the population, but they overlooked the influence of \acVH on disease dynamics, including the expected number of hospitalizations and fatalities. We propose improvements to the \acSEIR model for COVID-19 by incorporating the influence of vaccination, \acVH, and resource availability on the disease dynamics. We collect publicly available data and perform data analysis to capture \acVH dynamic changes over time and develop scenario paths for \acVH. We simulate the proposed compartmental model for each \acVH path to explain the impacts of public attitudes toward vaccination, the impacts of healthcare resources on patient outcomes, and the timing of vaccination rollout on the progression and severity of the epidemic. Our analysis demonstrates that reducing \acVH improves health outcomes, reinforcing the importance of addressing \acVH to curb the spread of infectious diseases. Our results show that adequate levels of critical healthcare resources are crucial for minimizing fatalities and also highlight the life-saving impact of timely and effective vaccination programs.