Grid-Free Computation of Probabilistic Safety with Malliavin Calculus

2021/04/29 by Francesco Cosentino, Cosentino, Francesco, Harald Oberhauser +3
Computer Science · Engineering · Social Sciences · #Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference #Traffic control and management #Transportation Planning and Optimization

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2104.14691

Abstract

This work concerns continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic dynamical systems described by stochastic differential equations (SDE). It presents a new approach to compute probabilistic safety regions, namely sets of initial conditions of the SDE associated to trajectories that are safe with a probability larger than a given threshold. The approach introduces a functional that is minimised at the border of the probabilistic safety region, then solves an optimisation problem using techniques from Malliavin Calculus, which computes such region. Unlike existing results in the literature, the new approach allows one to compute probabilistic safety regions without gridding the state space of the SDE.

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