2024/11/03 by LAK-HAL, HAMID, BENSBAHOU, AZIZ, MEFTAH, KHALID
paper · doi:10.48374/imist.prsm/ame-v6i4.50447
During the period 2001-2021, budget forecasts presented on average an absolute margin of error of 19.3 billion DH, a gap of almost 45% compared to actual budget balances. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of these forecasts and to identify the factors that influence these differences, while proposing avenues for improvement for the budget forecasting process. We have conducted a paired sample t-test to compare the actual budget balance and forecast budget balance. Additionally, we have used various error measurement metrics such as ME (Mean Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) to identify the tendency of forecasting (underestimation or overestimation). According to our study's results, budget forecasts are not precise. There is a significant disparity between the forecasted and actual budget balances, with a consistent and notable trend of underestimation in Morocco's government budget forecasts. Given this situation, it becomes necessary to be attentive and promote a more detailed approach to budget planning for the purpose of enhancing the accuracy of state budget forecasts in Morocco. Key words: State budget, Forecast accuracy, Fiscal planning, Budget forecasting.