2019/03/08 by João Sequeira, Sequeira, João, Jorge Louçã +5
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Medicine · #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Insect symbiosis and bacterial influences #Malaria Research and Control #Mosquito-borne diseases and control #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1903.04353
openalex publication_date 2019/03/08 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We introduce an agent-based model describing a\nsusceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) system of humans and mosquitoes to\npredict malaria epidemiological scenarios in realistic biological conditions.\nEmphasis is given to the transition from endemic behavior to eradication of\nmalaria transmission induced by combined drug therapies acting on both the\ngametocytemia reduction and on the selective mosquito mortality during parasite\ndevelopment in the mosquito. Our mathematical framework enables to uncover the\ncritical values of the parameters characterizing the effect of each drug\ntherapy. Moreover, our results provide quantitative evidence of what is\nempirically known: interventions combining gametocytemia reduction through the\nuse of gametocidal drugs, with the selective action of ivermectin during\nparasite development in the mosquito, may actively promote disease eradication\nin the long run. In the agent model, the main properties of human-mosquito\ninteractions are implemented as parameters and the model is validated by\ncomparing simulations with real data of malaria incidence collected in the\nendemic malaria region of Chimoio in Mozambique. Finally, we discuss our\nfindings in light of current drug administration strategies for malaria\nprevention, that may interfere with human-to-mosquito transmission process.\n