2019/03/08 by João Sequeira, Sequeira, João, Jorge Louçã +5
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Medicine · Physics and Astronomy · #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Insect symbiosis and bacterial influences #Malaria Research and Control #Mosquito-borne diseases and control #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #physics.soc-ph #q-bio.PE
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1903.04353
12 pages, 6 figures
arxiv created 2019/03/08 · openalex publication_date 2019/03/08 · arxiv updated 2019/03/12 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We introduce an agent-based model describing a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) system of humans and mosquitoes to predict malaria epidemiological scenarios in realistic biological conditions. Emphasis is given to the transition from endemic behavior to eradication of malaria transmission induced by combined drug therapies acting on both the gametocytemia reduction and on the selective mosquito mortality during parasite development in the mosquito. Our mathematical framework enables to uncover the critical values of the parameters characterizing the effect of each drug therapy. Moreover, our results provide quantitative evidence of what is empirically known: interventions combining gametocytemia reduction through the use of gametocidal drugs, with the selective action of ivermectin during parasite development in the mosquito, may actively promote disease eradication in the long run. In the agent model, the main properties of human-mosquito interactions are implemented as parameters and the model is validated by comparing simulations with real data of malaria incidence collected in the endemic malaria region of Chimoio in Mozambique. Finally, we discuss our findings in light of current drug administration strategies for malaria prevention, that may interfere with human-to-mosquito transmission process.