2021/06/14 by Nathan Glatt-Holtz, R. Alan Harris, Glatt-Holtz, Nathan E. +10
Computer Science · Earth and Planetary Sciences · #62P35 #86A22 #Applications (stat.AP) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping #Geophysics (physics.geo-ph) #Seismology and Earthquake Studies #earthquake and tectonic studies
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2106.07797
openalex publication_date 2021/06/14 · openalex created_date 2022/10/07 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Seismic risk estimates will be vastly improved with an increased understanding of historical (and pre-historical) seismic events. However the only existing data for these events is anecdotal and sparse. To address this we developed a framework based on Bayesian inference to estimate the location and magnitude of pre-instrumental earthquakes. We present a careful analysis of results obtained from this procedure which justifies the sampling algorithm, its convergence to the resultant posterior distribution, and yields estimates on uncertainties in the relevant quantities. Using a priori estimates on the posterior and numerical approximations of the Hessian, we demonstrate that the 1852 Banda Sea earthquake and tsunami is indeed well-understood given certain explicit hypotheses. Using the same techniques we also find that the 1820 south Sulawesi event may best be explained by a dual fault rupture, best attributed to the Kalatoa fault potentially conjoining the Flores thrust and Walanae/Selayar fault.