2022/04/26 by Groshens, Eva, Lecuyer, Bérengère, Maigné, Élise +1
#BDPORC #Boeuf #Cattle #Demographic mode #Forecast #Modélisation démographique #Normabev #Porc #Pork #Prévision #SPIE-BDNI
paper · doi:10.17180/ciag-2022-vol85-art29
To be able to meet the growing demand from the meat sector for production forecasts, the Livestock Institute (Idele) has committed alongside the Pork Institute (IFIP) and the Rural Development Observatory (INRAE-ODR) in a demographic forecasting project, relying on national identification data analysis. The pig database was quite recent, and needed further analysis before using it for forecasting. As we already had good knowledge of the cattle database and its exhaustivity, we were able to develop a monthly demographic forecast model for the bovine species, broken down by racial groups within different perimeters (France, administrative regions). The Modemo’Bovins tool is constantly evolving. Nevertheless, it has already made it possible to respond reactively to the demands of the sectors, and in particular in the context of the current Covid-19 crisis. From this experience emerged a new indicator of the fluidity of male cattle, which is still in use, and produced fortnightly.