2023/10/15 by Lee, Hangbin, Lee, Youngjo
#FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Mathematics #Methodology (stat.ME) #Statistics Theory (math.ST)
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2310.09955
Fisher's likelihood is widely used for statistical inference for fixed unknowns. This paper aims to extend two important likelihood-based methods, namely the maximum likelihood procedure for point estimation and the confidence procedure for interval estimation, to embrace a broader class of statistical models with additional random unknowns. We propose the new h-likelihood and the h-confidence by modifying extended likelihoods. Maximization of the h-likelihood yields both maximum likelihood estimators of fixed unknowns and asymptotically optimal predictors for random unknowns, achieving the generalized Cramér-Rao lower bound. The h-likelihood further offers advantages in scalability for large datasets and complex models. The h-confidence could yield a valid interval estimation and prediction by maintaining the coverage probability for both fixed and random unknowns in small samples. We study approximate methods for the h-likelihood and h-confidence, which can be applied to a general class of models with additional random unknowns.