Predictability problem in dynamical systems and in chaotic climate dynamics

2018/11/06 by Bershadskii, A.
#Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #FOS: Physical sciences

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1811.02449

Abstract

Predictability horizon properties of chaotic dynamical systems can be related to their spectral properties. It is shown, using this relationship, that the spectral properties of the leading large-scale climate daily indices indicate a smooth predictability: i.e. their intrinsic predictability horizons can be indefinitely extended by reducing the initial error. Special properties of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and some models (including ensemble weather forecasting) have been also discussed in this context.

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