Machine learning application in online lending risk prediction

2017/07/16 by Xiaojiao Yu, Yu, Xiaojiao
Business, Management and Accounting · #FOS: Economics and business #Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction #Risk Management (q-fin.RM)

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1707.04831

openalex publication_date 2017/07/16 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Online leading has disrupted the traditional consumer banking sector with more effective loan processing. Risk prediction and monitoring is critical for the success of the business model. Traditional credit score models fall short in applying big data technology in building risk model. In this manuscript, data with various format and size were collected from public website, third-parties and assembled with client's loan application information data. Ensemble machine learning models, random forest model and XGBoost model, were built and trained with the historical transaction data and subsequently tested with separate data. XGBoost model shows higher K-S value, suggesting better classification capability in this task. Top 10 important features from the two models suggest external data such as zhimaScore, multi-platform stacking loans information, and social network information are important factors in predicting loan default probability.

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