A Bayesian approach for small area population estimates using multiple administrative records

2019/04/25 by Jairo Fúquene, Andryu Mendoza, Fúquene, Jairo +5
Decision Sciences · Mathematics · Social Sciences · #Applications (stat.AP) #Census and Population Estimation #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management #Methodology (stat.ME) #demographic modeling and climate adaptation

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1904.11144

openalex publication_date 2019/04/25 · openalex created_date 2019/05/03 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Small area population estimates are useful for decision making in the private and public sectors. However, in small areas (i.e., those that are difficult to reach and with small population sizes) computing demographic quantities is complicated. Bayesian methods are an alternative for demographic population estimates which uses data from multiple administrative records. In this paper we explore a Bayesian approach which is simple and flexible and represents an alternative procedure for base population estimates particularly powerful for intercensal periods. The applicability of the methodological procedure is illustrated using population pyramids in the municipality of Jamundí in Colombia.

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